Kavan’s Blog
Kavan shares his insights and perspectives on key issues facing the global economy, financial markets and more in his blog.
Alternative Investing in a Higher Rate Environment
by Kavan Choksi
The US economy has so far proved to be more resilient to higher interest rates than most economists predicted. Employment numbers look better than expected, and the likelihood of a recession has continued to fade. Inflation, while remaining stickier than most would hope, has dropped at a reasonable pace and sits just above the target of 2% that policymakers prefer.
Waiting to Land: The Moments that Shaped the 2023 Economy
by Kavan Choksi
The year began in the middle of a historic rate hiking cycle aimed at taming inflation. The stress of higher rates seemed to portend an inflection point in the economy. In the first quarter, a series of bank failures threatened system-wide contagion. Tremors in the banking system fueled recessionary fears, which were amplified by slowing US GDP growth. The soft landing eyed by the Federal Reserve and hoped for by optimistic investors started seeming less likely.
Three Out of the Four Largest Bank Failures in U.S. History Happened This Year: Have the Banking Sector Risks Passed?
By Kavan Choksi
Sometimes business decisions lead to success, and a bank’s profit grows. Other times, business decisions, coupled with bleak economic conditions, result in losses. In banking, such losses can lead to a sudden drop in confidence among the bank’s customers, the depositors demand their money, and the run on the bank causes a quick collapse.
Debt Ceiling Fallout – The Winners, The Losers and What It Means for the Markets
By Kavan Choksi
In January 2023, the U.S. reached its debt ceiling, and Secretary Yellen announced that the Treasury would begin taking “extraordinary measures” to avoid defaulting on any U.S. obligations until a bill passed to increase the debt limit. Such measures have become relatively common over the last two decades.
Diving into Shark Tank’s Portrayal of Entrepreneurship – Does the popular reality show encourage sound business strategy and risk-taking?
By Kavan Choksi
The show, which has aired since 2009, has become one of the most watched and well-loved entrepreneurial shows on TV. But does the show offer a realistic view of entrepreneurship? Let’s talk about what it gets right and wrong about taking the leap into business ownership.
The Bank of Japan’s December Surprise – Economic Policy or Currency Politics?
By Kavan Choksi
In a surprise move that shocked markets, the Bank of Japan tweaked its yield curve control (YCC) policy by doubling the cap on bond yields from 0.25% to 0.5% at its latest policy meeting on December 20.
What Americans Should Know about the European Energy Crisis
By Kavan Choksi
Prices at the pump in the U.S. have fallen sharply since the summer surge as gasoline has returned to 1Q:22 levels. Coupled with a warm autumn, falling gas prices have perhaps led to some complacency among Americans when it comes to rising energy costs. But Europe’s ongoing energy crisis continues to create global energy supply worries and economic risk.
The 2022 U.S. Midterm Elections – What’s Next?
By Kavan Choksi
This year’s US midterm elections arrived at a precarious economic moment amid rampant inflation and recessionary fears. The results of the election will not likely cure the macroeconomic issues; however, the market has usually performed better in the six months following a midterm election than it did in the six months leading up to it.
How We Got Here: The UK Financial Crisis
By Kavan Choksi
The appointment of Rishi Sunak as prime minister on October 25 marked another rapid development in a tumultuous period for the UK government. At a time of surging inflation and a European energy crisis, Liz Truss’ ill-fated PM tenure was brief– the shortest in British history – but highly consequential.
Financial Planning Month and Strategies to Build Wealth in a Bear Market
By Kavan Choksi
During times of such high volatility, many investors opt to sit on the sidelines and wait for the storms to pass. But there are more proactive strategies you can put to work in order to grow your investments during turbulent times.